In a significant diplomatic shift, India has initiated high-level engagement with Afghanistan’s Taliban regime, marking a dramatic evolution in regional politics. This development signals a complex realignment of power in a region where multiple nations are vying for influence amid changing alliances and strategic imperatives.
India’s Diplomatic Pivot
India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri recently met with Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai, representing the first high-level bilateral meeting between Indian officials and Taliban leadership since the latter’s return to power in 2021. This engagement effectively provides the Taliban with a form of de facto legitimacy that they have long sought from the international community.
The meeting follows India’s earlier cautious steps, including the reopening of a limited diplomatic presence in Kabul in June 2022. While maintaining its focus on bilateral relations, India continues to emphasise its support for the Afghan people, balancing strategic interests with humanitarian concerns.
The Taliban’s Internal Power Dynamics
Understanding the Taliban’s complex internal structure is crucial to analysing India’s approach. Power within the Taliban is primarily shared between the Kandahar-based groups (predominantly Durrani and Ghilzai tribes) and the Haqqani Network from the southeast (led by the Zadran tribe).
The reclusive Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhundzada, based in Kandahar, maintains final authority. The Zadrans, who control much of the southeast (Khost, Paktia, and Paktika provinces) and hold substantial power in Kabul, have historically maintained close ties with Pakistan’s intelligence services.
Intelligence sources suggest, however, that the Zadrans are now seeking to balance their relationships between Pakistan and India. Mullah Yakub, son of Taliban founder Mullah Omar and current defense minister, reportedly favours improved ties with India, though the extent of his enthusiasm remains unclear. Foreign Minister Muttaqi’s meeting with Misri would have required Haibatullah’s approval, though the Supreme Leader’s genuine interest in the India relationship remains uncertain.
India’s Strategic Calculations
India’s engagement with the Taliban is driven by several interconnected strategic imperatives:
- Preserving Past Investments: Before the Taliban takeover, India had invested approximately $3 billion across 500 projects in Afghanistan, establishing itself as the country’s largest regional donor. These investments included landmark infrastructure projects like the 218km Zaranj-Delaram Highway, the 42MW Salma Dam, power transmission lines, and the Afghan Parliament building.
- Preventing Terrorist Threats: Ensuring Afghan territory isn’t used as a base for planning attacks against India remains a paramount concern.
- Enhancing Regional Connectivity: India seeks to strengthen connections with Iran and Central Asia, which it cannot reach directly by land due to Pakistan’s refusal of transit rights. The Chabahar port development in Iran, in collaboration with Afghanistan, represents a key component of this strategy.
Countering China’s Influence: China has aggressively moved to secure Afghanistan’s estimated $3 trillion mineral wealth, with major investments in oil extraction, lithium mining, copper production, and gold mining. China’s increasing presence in the Wakhan Corridor also serves security purposes, allowing Beijing to monitor potential extremist threats to its Xinjiang region.
Exploiting Pakistan-Taliban Tensions: The deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban has created an unprecedented opportunity for India. Once Pakistan’s most reliable proxy, the Taliban has become increasingly independent and even hostile toward its former patron.
The Pakistan Factor
The Taliban’s provision of sanctuary to the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has severely strained relations between Kabul and Islamabad. Reports indicate Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province killed 46 Afghan civilians, while TTP attacks have killed numerous Pakistani soldiers. The Taliban has also rejected Pakistani demands regarding the Haqqani Network.
This deterioration in Pakistan-Taliban relations has reportedly driven desperate countermeasures from Pakistan, including alleged attempts to leverage ISIS in Afghanistan to create unrest in Kashmir and engage in proxy wars aimed at destabilizing Afghanistan. According to claims from a former TTP spokesperson, Pakistan has waged a proxy war in collaboration with ISIS to spread chaos in Afghanistan.
Russia’s Reemergence
Simultaneously, Russia has reasserted its influence in what it considers its historical sphere of influence. President Putin has characterised the Taliban as “anti-terrorist allies” in 2024, with LNG transit agreements expected in 2025. Arrangements for Russian oil and wheat transit through Afghanistan and increasing security coordination across Central Asia further demonstrate Moscow’s strategic return to the region.
Challenges and Uncertainties
Despite the strategic rationale, India faces significant challenges in developing a sustainable relationship with the Taliban. These include:
- Trust Deficit: Overcoming decades of mutual suspicion and hostility presents a formidable challenge.
- Human Rights Concerns: India must balance strategic interests with concerns over the Taliban’s restrictive policies, particularly regarding women’s rights to education, work, and political participation.
- Taliban Cohesion: Uncertainty persists about whether agreements with one faction will be honoured by others within the fractious regime.
- Great Power Competition: India must navigate the complex dynamics of US-China-Russia competition in the region.
- Domestic Politics: Managing potential political backlash from engagement with a regime once viewed as terrorists requires diplomatic finesse.
Future Scenarios
The competition for influence in Afghanistan could evolve in several directions:
- Chinese Economic Dominance: Beijing’s superior financial resources could secure predominant influence across Afghanistan.
- Russian Security Hegemony: Moscow’s historical ties and military capabilities could position it as the primary external power.
- Indian Diplomatic Breakthrough: Delhi’s cultural affinities and development assistance could secure privileged status.
- Fragmented Influence: Different external powers might establish dominance in different regions and sectors.
- Taliban Independence: The regime could successfully balance competing powers against each other, preserving its autonomy.
Conclusion
India’s engagement with the Taliban marks a new, more intense phase in the competition for influence in Afghanistan. This complex diplomatic dance involves multiple powers wielding diverse tools of influence, from economic investment to security cooperation.
For India, success would cement its status as a first-tier Asian power capable of projecting influence throughout the region. Failure would limit its strategic options and constrain its broader regional ambitions.
As this high-stakes contest unfolds, Afghanistan remains the prize that could define the future balance of power in Asia. The fundamental question that will continue to trouble Indian policymakers remains: can an actor like the Taliban truly be trusted as a reliable partner? The answer to this question will shape the trajectory of India’s cautious engagement with a regime it once opposed.
