The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was signed by the US and USSR in 1987 to prohibit all US and Soviet ground-launched missiles with a range of 500-5,500 kilometers. The INF treaty happened at a time when the Cold War was “thawing,” and the treaty helped alleviate some nuclear risks to Europe. When Russia withdrew from the Treaty in August 2019, the US cited Russian violations of the treaty as the reason for withdrawal. Russia continues to maintain a moratorium now until the time at which they can withdraw, August 4, 2025. This follows US President Trump’s deployment of nuclear submarines to NATO waters relatively close to Russian waters, as well as a comment from former President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev that an immediate nuclear response would happen if deployed.
Russia blames the United States and NATO as the principal reasons for its departure and withdrawal from the treaty, and this event ends the last substantive bilateral arms control treaty. This withdrawal from the treaty opens the door for the advent of a new arms race, and Russia may choose to deploy missiles in Kaliningrad, and the United States may deploy missiles in Poland or Romania, resulting in greater fears of nuclear miscalculations. As a member of BRICS, India has been subjected to the economic pressures of US President Trump’s 25% tariffs, and India is faced with the clear logistical challenge of military alignment with the United States, which is simultaneously full of contradictions for India’s officially neutral stance on global issues and its policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons. Russia claims BRICS support and globalizes the US’s use of its economic weight as a coercive weapon. The NPT non-state parties include India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.
