President Trump’s evolving position on Taiwan represents a transactional, interest-based doctrine. Washington’s recent decision to halt $400 million in military aid, including drones, shows it is willing to sacrifice Taiwan’s security for an economic relationship with China. Taiwan, a lively democracy and semiconductor center, depends on U.S. support but fears potential abandonment as Beijing continues military advances over 340 PLA incursions were reported in early 2025. Beijing’s ever-expanding naval force, improving aircraft carriers, and monopoly on rare earth minerals only enhances its leverage, while Washington prioritizes trade access, rare earth access, and farm exports over Taiwan’s defense.
Based on that concern, the credibility of the U.S. is surely in question, with Taiwan concerned it could be “Ukraine 2.0”, providing rhetorical support but, ultimately, a disengaging strategy. China no longer faces Western pressure as it has in the past, with the Belt and Road Initiative creating markets across the globe, increasing research and development capabilities, and more STEM talent. The reading for India is unambiguous: never our over-reliance on the U.S. short-term. India should advocate for atma nirbharta (self-reliance) in defense and defence manufacturing while cautiously managing a growing China provoking, but not submitting. India provides its support to sovereignty and territorial integrity but also respect for a “one China” policy acknowledging the need for solving peacefully through all means.
