In a major diplomatic development, Pakistan and Bangladesh have agreed to enable visa-free travel for holders of diplomatic and official passports. After a high-level meeting between Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi and Bangladesh’s Security Advisor Lieutenant General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury on July 23, 2025, in Dhaka, the two countries announced what they viewed as both a diplomatic reset and a confidence-building measure. At the same time, this improved relationship has created significant security and geopolitical implications for India.
A Historic Shift in South Asian Diplomacy
The agreement marks a historic thaw in the otherwise strained relationship between Pakistan and Bangladesh, which had developed a bad relationship ever since the bloody events of the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War. Pakistan has never formally apologized for the genocide and war crimes during that time, and that has always prevented them from normalizing ties. Movement toward normalizing ties through diplomatic gestures, for example, Bangladesh loosening restrictions on Pakistani visitors in late 2023, was made possible by these gestures.
Up until that time, no Pakistani person traveling to Bangladesh could travel without security clearance from Dahka’s intelligence agencies. This, of course, eliminated any potential extremist elements easily. Now that the clearance has been removed and with visa-free access for diplomats and officials, India may face a potential strategic disadvantage in the region.
India’s Security Concerns
Indian concerns arise mainly due to Bangladesh’s geographic location and the country’s porous land border which is 4,096 km long and extends to certain states in India, such as Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram and West Bengal. Historically, these areas have experienced insurgencies, cross-border militancy, and separatist groups. India fears Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) may exploit visa-free access to Bangladesh to promote these disturbances. Mounting concerns from Indian security agencies are growing over the ease with which ISI operatives could now:
- Set up sleeper cells and safe houses in Bangladesh
- Plan and implement anti-India operations across the border
- Fund and recruit extremists in unstable northeastern Indian states such as Assam, Nagaland, and Manipur
Additionally, because of the removal of Bangladesh’s security clearance requirement, a critically important hurdle that could prevent suspected ISI operatives from entering the country has been removed. Although India has a well-established border security presence, total prevention of infiltration is impossible. Even a few entries could lead to arms smuggling, distribution of counterfeit currency, or radicalization.
Strategic and Diplomatic Implications for India
In addition to direct security threats, there are far reaching geopolitical consequences. It could be the beginning of a broader shift in the region away from India, and a warming up of two Pakistan, and by extension China and Turkey. This would undermine India’s historical diplomatic leverage in South Asia.
Significant ramifications for India are as follows:
- Diminishing diplomatic leverage: As Bangladesh develops closer relations with Pakistan India could lose its strategic leverage in Dhaka.
- Risking economic projects: Major infrastructure and connectivity projects like the BBIN (Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal) project and Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project are at risk.
- Disrupting intelligence sharing relationship: India will likely curtail the intelligence sharing to Bangladesh to protect sensitive information from falling to Pakistan.
- Reorganization of security posture: India is likely to increase border surveillance, assign more BSF and intelligence people on the ground, and increase physical and digital monitoring of the Bangladesh border.
Why Is Bangladesh Moving Closer to Pakistan?
Bangladesh’s foreign policy shift can chiefly be attributed to transfiguration of the political order, single-handedly engineered by the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and bringing in the man from Dhaka, Mohammad Yunus. When Hasina was the Prime Minister, anti-India elements were kept in check, in part as a legitimate response to India’s own failings as a big brother and neighbor. So, there was significant cooperation with India. However, it seems the new regime wants to operate an independent foreign policy by broadening its dealings with several countries, including China, Turkey and again Pakistan.
This change in foreign policy comes from a range of motives:
- Reducing India’s Control of Foreign Policy Effects on Domestic Affairs: The new regime wants to develop independent foreign relations that permits reduced domestic induced control by India.
- Appeasement Strategy: Bangladesh appears to be signaling a diplomatic engagement with Pakistan to quell regional instabilities and their own regional pressure points.
- Internal Political Communication: It may also merely be signaling a distance from India to reach and perhaps satisfy segments of domestic constituencies that feel wronged or slighted by the previous government’s total alignment with New Delhi.
What’s Next?
India is adjusting its foreign policy in reaction to this development. This strategy includes military surveillance, possible resetting of economic ties, and increasing relations with ASEAN and Quad countries to counter the Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China coalition.
Although the visa-free agreement between Pakistan and Bangladesh is being framed as a foreign policy win for Islamabad, it significantly complicates India’s calculations. India will now have to take a more cautious approach process with Dhaka as it recalibrates its defense posture and foreign policy in the region. Ultimately, depending on how the dynamics in Dhaka play out, instability, or if strategically managed, recalibrated instability, will take root in South Asia.
