Rising frictions between China and Japan in the East China Sea have reopened long-standing strategic anxieties in the Indo-Pacific, particularly following renewed confrontation over Taiwan. The two Asian powers, despite decades of deep economic interdependence, have struggled to stabilise their maritime relationship. Their fragile equilibrium has been tested after remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who warned that any attack on Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan; an assertion that Beijing interpreted as a direct challenge to its sovereignty claims. In response, China intensified coast guard deployments and military signalling around the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, heightening the risk of miscalculation in an already sensitive maritime corridor.
For India, the developments carry wider implications. As a key Indo-Pacific actor and a strategic partner of Japan through frameworks such as the Quad, New Delhi is closely watching the shifting alignments. Any escalation around Taiwan or the East China Sea could reverberate across regional supply chains, maritime shipping routes, and the broader security architecture. India’s trade flows are deeply intertwined with East Asian sea lanes, while its security calculus is shaped by China’s expanding maritime footprint from the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Although India is unlikely to be directly drawn into a confrontation, sustained instability between China and Japan may compel New Delhi to recalibrate its diplomatic balancing, economic preparedness, and defence partnerships to navigate a more uncertain Indo-Pacific order.
