The global crude oil market remains on edge ahead of the August 15 Trump Putin meeting, which could redefine US sanctions on Russian oil and shift global supply balances. Traders are watching closely, as the talks may either ease restrictions and pressure prices or trigger fresh sanctions that could lift them sharply. Russia exports 7 million barrels per day including 4.68 million barrels of crude. India, a major buyer at 1.7 million barrels per day, faces new tariff threats from Washington, while potential secondary sanctions on nations such as China could disrupt flows.
A severe supply cut could push WTI to the range of 70 to 75 dollars and Brent to the range of 75 to 80 dollars. OPEC Plus is gradually restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts by September, with additional capacity in reserve. However, global inventories are rising by 1 million barrels per day, and the International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus of 1.1 million barrels per day by the fourth quarter of 2025.
This surplus could limit price gains unless geopolitical shocks occur. Demand signals from Asia remain weak. China’s July imports fell 5.4 percent month on month, and rising electric vehicle adoption is reducing global oil demand by 0.4 million barrels per day this year. US shale production is plateauing, with 2025 output expected to dip slightly from last year. In the short term, analysts expect WTI between 62 and 67 dollars and Brent between 67 and 72 dollars. The August 15 talks will be the decisive trigger for the next major price move.
