Europe is still economically strong. At the start of 2025, the EU earned more from exports than from imports, with a goods surplus of about €55 billion something that has not been observed for many years. The EU is also signing trade agreements such as the one with New Zealand in 2024, selling huge amounts of goods to the United States, and buying large quantities from China. On paper, this seems fine. However, actual political willingness, economic capacity, and singular will to take independent action in Defence suffer in the trade mindset of Europe. With the term “happy vassal,” we refer to an entity that enjoys economic comfort while depending on others, mostly the U.S., for security.
The China Dilemma: Tariffs Without Independence
The EU is the largest single market for goods and is quite good with negotiating deals. The U.S. buys some 20% of EU exports; China is source of more than 20% of imports. And yet, in going to this trade ties are embedded risks. Europe started trying to “de-risk” China investigating subsidies and slapping on tariffs on Chinese EVs. Since then, tariff rates have ranged between 17% and 19% on Chinese EVs from BYD, Geely, and so on. The bad thing, however, is that Europe still depends on China for EV batteries, raw materials, and components. The EU-Mercosur agreement with South America gives a further example. It will open vast markets, yet political and environmental matters keep it blocked. Europe looks weaker in trade if it cannot turn bargaining into act.
Energy After Russia: LNG Reliance and Hidden Risks
Russia supplied over 45% of Europe’s gas before the invasion, but by 2023, it’s left to just 10 to 15%, the last flow through Ukraine ceasing in 2024. Thus, most losses have been replaced with LNG and pipeline supplies either from the U.S., Norway, Qatar, Algeria, or Azerbaijan, nearly making America the biggest LNG supplier at 45 to 46% of imports. Yet, Russian LNG shipments to Europe continue to grow, reaching a record 16.5 Mt (≈24 bcm) in 2024, accounting for some 20% of the EU’s LNG imports, and Europe was charged €6.3 billion that year. The EU overall spent €35.9 billion on LNG in 2024, and over 90% of Russia’s LNG exports depend on Western-operated ships and Western insurance, leaving great holes in European energy security despite the pipeline shift.
Strategic Autonomy: Dream or Illusion?
The European Commission has identified the risks of overreliance and introduced initiatives towards establishing self-sufficiency. The European Chips Act allocates €43 billion to restore Europe’s semiconductor sector. The European Defence Fund provides €8 billion for 2021–2027 to increase defence innovation. In parallel, the Net-Zero Industry Act aims at increasing clean energy manufacturing and lowering dependence on Chinese solar panels, which presently constitute more than 75% of EU imports within the sector. But the chasm is daunting. When it comes to technology, Europe captures less than 5% of worldwide AI investment, while the U.S. captures 40%, and China 32% (Stanford AI Index 2023). On rare earths, which are necessary for wind turbines and electric cars, China has around 60% of refining capacity, and so Europe’s green revolution hangs in the balance of geopolitics. Even in renewables, where the progress is impressive 22% of the energy used in the EU in 2022 was from renewables the continent remains dependent on foreign inputs.
Strategic autonomy, in other words, is achievable but it involves painful short-term costs. It involves increased defence spending, bringing industry back home, and creating expensive inventories of strategic resources. For politicians about to go out for elections, all such steps tend to be politically radioactive compared to the instant gratification of inking one more trade agreement.
Europe Happy Vassal Syndrome
Europe as a happy vassal has to rest on three pillars: political incentives, economic structure, and security outsourcing. Politically speaking, a trade deal like the EU–Mercosur pact is easier to sell than an argument about fraught defense spending. Economically, Europe’s industries, especially Germany’s automotive sector, are literally tied to China simultaneously as a market and sometimes even as a source of critical inputs such as rare earths, so to speak, through decoupling would be just too much to ask. Militarily, a lot of EU states stymie defense expenditure, hoping instead to ride NATO’s U.S.-led umbrella while redirecting funds to welfare. This arrangement is felt to be stable in the status quo where Washington provides the security, Beijing does the manufacturing, and the Gulf states supply energy. Yet the system is fragile: U.S. commitments tend to swing with elections, China exposed critical vulnerabilities in 2023 by placing restrictions on gallium and germanium, and Russia weaponized gas in 2022, forcing a very painful energy pivot. What seems like workable convenience today is poised to become a strategic liability tomorrow.
Signs of Awakening: Can Europe Break Free?
A positive development is that Europe seems to be reacting. Germany proposes a special fund amounting to €100 billion for the modernization of its armed forces. Meanwhile, Poland currently spends 4% of its GDP on defense, ranking second in NATO after the U.S. The European Union is tightening down on foreign subsidies so as to safeguard its single market, in addition to investing funds towards the clean-tech innovation. Hence, the transition is uneven, and if progress is slow, the danger may well be that Europe would tend exist life after the crux-defining moment and that would be when the cost of dependency could prove to be so much.
The so-called Happy Vassal Syndrome Europe suffers is not fatal but is a dangerous one. The continent has built prosperity through trade, comfort, and interdependence. But wealth freedom is an invitation to tyranny, as Europe would be left vulnerable to how stronger powers would like to exercise their domininct will on it. The challenge for the EU today is to strike a different balance-from that it might entertain today: to continue to draw from global trade, yet start investing defense, technology, and energy resilience. If Europe fails, it shall sit and watch other players crafting the world while remaining prosperous. If it succeeds, it stands a chance to shed the mantle of being the happy vassal and emerge into a real constructive pillar of world peace. The urgency of the matter is tremendous, and the time is working against us.
