The continent is facing an increasingly strategic untenable choice, as Russia expands military and intelligence operations in the Baltic and North Seas, advising that Moscow is actively preparing to engage in war with NATO. Experts told Al Jazeera that European nations are still disjointed and uncoordinated, even as Russia increases surveillance capabilities in Baltic nations’ airspace and through drone incursions. In September 2025, alone, Russian MiG-31s violated Estonian airspace and Geran-2 drones violated Polish airspace, triggering multiple NATO intercepts from Italian F-35s and German Eurofighters.
Experts such as Joseph Fitsanakis from Coastal Carolina University and Anna Wieslander of the Atlantic Council caution that Russia’s so-called “hybrid warfare” intends to psychologically and politically wear down Europe. Fitsanakis termed this a “time of emergency,” like pre-war mobilization phases of Russian military doctrine. In contrast, European responses are patchy, as countries like Poland hire Ukrainian veterans for drone defense and Denmark pledges to inspect tankers, but Europe still has no plan for a unified EU response strategy to Russia’s “shadow fleet” and drone operations.
The intelligence gap that is growing between Europe and the United States is making the situation worse. European intelligence agencies, including the Dutch intelligence service, have decreased information sharing because of concerns about political dysfunction in Washington. Analysts note that the loss of trust has “paralyzed NATO,” which does not come at a good time, as Russia is ramping up its aggression and espionage against Europe. As Fitsanakis said, “Europe today is as unprepared to face Russia’s advances as it was in 1939.”
