After years of mistrust since the 2020 Galwan clash, India and China are cautiously moving toward normalization. Beijing’s decision to lift curbs on rare earth and fertilizer exports, along with the resumption of flights and visas, signals a shift driven less by goodwill and more by strategic necessity.
For China, slowing growth and U.S. tariff pressures have created an urgent need to stabilize trade. For India, securing critical resources strengthens supply chains and supports its ambition to become a global manufacturing hub. Both nations recognize that prolonged hostility only drains resources and undermines their regional aspirations.
The timing reflects wider geopolitical flux: the U.S. is reinforcing Indo-Pacific alliances, while Russia recalibrates amid the Ukraine war. Against this backdrop, India and China appear to be seeking a managed equilibrium, evident in new confidence-building measures along the Line of Actual Control.
Yet, unresolved disputes, from border tensions to China’s South Asia projects remain potential flashpoints. The thaw, therefore, is not a friendship reset but a calculated pause. Whether it matures into stability or reverts to confrontation will shape the trajectory of Asian geopolitics for decades.
