Israel’s launch of the “Operation Rising Lion” has brought world attention back to the Middle East in significant escalation of tension, and a renewed focus on the Iranian nuclear program and threats from the Iranian regime. Israel launched a large operation of attacks over Iran involving about 200 combat aircraft (which is about two-thirds of Israel’s total fighter capacity) to bomb just over 100 targets in Iran, to include Karaj. This participation from another army in the region provides valuable assistance. The Israeli strikes occurred June 13, 2025, in the early morning around 3:30 a.m.
Key Drivers Behind the Israeli Strikes
Netanyahu’s Political Imperatives: Domestically, Prime Minister Netanyahu faces significant pressure, including ongoing legal cases. He seeks to solidify his legacy, not through progress in Gaza, but by destroying Iran’s nuclear program and securing Israel from this existential threat for generations. This deep-seated ambition significantly influenced the timing of the operation.
Obstruction of a New Iran Deal: The prospect of a new Iran nuclear deal, currently being negotiated by the US and hosted by Oman, was a major concern for Netanyahu and the Israeli right. They believe no settlement can prevent Iran from enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels, as Iran is already deemed to be weeks away from this capability. Despite warnings from the US that such strikes would sabotage their negotiations, Netanyahu deliberately proceeded to scupper these efforts, indicating Israel’s strong opposition to any deal that allows Iran to continue its enrichment program.
Iran’s Escalating Nuclear Capabilities: Israel is deeply intimidated by Iran’s rapid advancement in uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies that Iran has about 48 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% U-235 and that it is producing another 3.5 kilograms per month. Eighty-five percent enrichment is required for the top-grade weapon, though just slightly less can still yield crude nuclear devices. The US-Israeli partnership has enabled attacks, including Stuxnet worm (Operation Olympic Games) in 2006, but these served only to delay Iran’s progress. Israel now wants to kill Iran’s program, not just destroy its facilities, but murder important scientists, as well.
Robust US Military Presence in the Gulf: The current US military deployment in the Gulf region is at its heaviest in a long time, including the USS Carl Vinson with its task force, four to six destroyers, an attack submarine, and 75 aircraft (44 of which are strike aircraft). This substantial presence, despite US denials of direct participation, provides significant “back-end support” to Israel, enabling operations of this scale and breadth.
Changing Power Dynamics in the Middle East: A long time ago, Saudi Arabia and the UAE were in the pro-Israel camp against Iran’s nuclear aspirations. This was because Israel viewed Iran as an emerging regional power. After the weakening of Iranian proxies in Gaza and discomfiture from a pressure campaign on the Houthis, these Arab states are now increasingly worried about Israel’s emerging power and its rise as the regional hegemon. Their shifting mood may make them more amenable to a US-brokered nuclear peace deal with Iran, which, again, Netanyahu’s politics is trying to preempt.
Destruction of Iran’s Proxies Near Israel: While Iran is nearly 2,000 kilometers away, its proxies Hamas and Hezbollah effectively brought the Iranian threat to Israel’s doorstep. The decimation of Hamas and Hezbollah, coupled with the loss of Iran’s foothold in Syria, has created a buffer for Israel, freeing up its northern borders and allowing it to focus on Iran directly. This newfound comfort has enabled Israel to project power further.
Israel’s Advanced Strike Capabilities and Intelligence: The Israeli military possesses the necessary equipment, technical know-how, training, American assistance, and precise intelligence to reach distant targets and hit them accurately. The ability to carry out massive air attacks with minimal resistance, even in what could have been heavily defended airspace around Tehran, demonstrates this capability.
The strike was at both physical infrastructure, including the Natanz nuclear enrichment facility, where heavy ordinance (6604 kgs) was dropped including 4,000-5000 lbs. GBU bunker busters intended to penetrate 1-2 meters of concrete. Israel had degraded Iranian air defense the prior year, destroying most of the air defense intercepted by missiles purchased from Russia (S-300) and effective radars; thus there was near resistance to the attack.
Equally beneficial together with the physical attacks were the attacks on high value people in Iran’s military and nuclear programs. Among those reported killed are:
- Major General Muhammad Baqeri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces.
- Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi intelligence chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and his Deputy General Hassan Mohaqiq
- General Hussein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
- General Gulami Rashid, Deputy Commander of Armed Forces.
- General Amir Ali Haji Zade, Head of Aerospace in IRGC, along with a majority of his top brass.
- Several nuclear scientists, including Feridun Abasi (former head of the atomic energy organization), Mohammad Maidi Thranji (theoretical physicist and president of Islamic Azad University), Abdul Hammed Minushar, Amir Hussein Fiki, Ahmed Raza Zulfari (all senior academic scientists), and Mutal Bizade.
The accuracy of these attacks are precise; missiles presumably the Israeli Popey missile or its derivatives, such as India’s Crystal Maze were able to hit individual apartments and rooms, demonstrating extremely advanced intelligence and, potentially, ground targeting. This suggests a thorough understanding of the movements and locations of the targets.
Context and Political Nuances:
These strikes follow a pattern of targeted assassinations of Iranian nuclear nuclear physicist and scientist , such as Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020 (killed by a computerized machine gun), and IRGC commanders like Raza Musavi (December 2023) and Muhammad Razad Zahedi (April 2024).
US President Donald Trump has also weighed in, claiming he gave a “60-day notice” for a deal with Iran and that Israel’s actions on “day 61” were a consequence, implying a “second chance” for Iran to negotiate. However, Iran has responded by stating it will not attend the scheduled sixth round of negotiations with the Americans in Oman, signaling the severe impact of the strikes.
Finally, Israel’s official statements describe these actions as “preemptive attacks,” a crucial distinction under international law. Preemptive attacks are permissible if an imminent threat is perceived, whereas “preventive” attacks, aimed at thwarting a future threat (like a nuclear program), are generally not. This framing underscores Israel’s legal justification for its aggressive stance.
Ultimately, the timing of “Operation Rising Lion” is not attributed to a single cause but rather a complex interplay of these strategic factors, all converging to allow Israel to take decisive action against Iran’s nuclear program and perceived regional dominance.
