The Trump administration’s announcement that the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program would be suspended from January 27th for at least three months is fueling concerns among Pakistani authorities. This suspension effectively meant all work stopped on processing the paperwork of people fleeing to the U.S. because of persecution. More than 500 flights for over 1,000 already-vetted refugees from the region were cancelled. Tens of thousands of Afghans fled to neighbouring Pakistan after the Taliban took over Afghanistan in August 2021 and were approved for resettlement in the U.S. through a program that helps people at risk because of their work with the American government, media, aid agencies, and women’s rights groups. As per a recent Pakistani foreign ministry report, “almost 80,000” Afghans have so far been “taken by various countries for resettlement, and around 40,000 are still in Pakistan.” They reportedly include an estimated 15,000 Afghans to be approved for resettlement in the U.S.
Afghan Refugee Problem in Pakistan
Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the start of the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. Over the next 20 years, as civil war engulfed Afghanistan, Afghans kept entering Pakistan. The second wave of Afghan refugees started after the Taliban first took control in 1996. The wave of Afghan refugees stopped after the United States invaded Afghanistan in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks. The Taliban’s fall led to the establishment of a civilian government, which prompted thousands of Afghans to return home. However, the Taliban’s stunning return to power in August 2021 triggered another wave of displacement, with between 600,000 and 800,000 Afghans seeking refuge in Pakistan. This wave included men and women who helped the U.S. Government in their administration before August 2021.
Those who arrived after the August 2021 Taliban takeover have had to rely on visa renewals to remain in Pakistan, a process that is expensive, unpredictable, and fraught with delays. The Afghans are undergoing torture and all sorts of difficulties. Pakistan currently hosts nearly more than 2.5 million Afghans, according to government estimates, with another 1.7 million people in the country “illegally.” Among them, about 1.3 million possess a UNHCR-issued Proof of Registration (PoR) card, first introduced in 2006, while another 800,000 hold an Afghan Citizen Card (ACC), issued in 2017. All of them, until now, held documents that were deemed as certificates of legitimate residence in Pakistan. Now they face an uncertain future under the three-stage “relocation” plan of the Pakistani Government.
Strained Relations with the Taliban
Once considered one of the Afghan Taliban’s closest allies, Pakistan has seen relations with its neighbour deteriorate over the past three years. At the initial stage, Pakistan accepted all the refugees with the intention of resolving all issues with the Taliban. However, these relations between Pakistan and the Taliban soon deteriorated. Islamabad blames Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers for failing to curb the activities of the Pakistani Taliban, or Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group that emerged in 2007 and has since carried out hundreds of attacks against Pakistani security forces.
In 2024 alone, Pakistan has witnessed more than 500 attacks, resulting in more than 1,500 deaths among civilians and law enforcement personnel. The Pakistani government has frequently accused Afghan citizens of involvement in these attacks and claims Kabul provides shelter to the TTP, a charge the Afghan Taliban denies. The government’s recent notification suggests that Afghan refugees now find themselves caught in the middle of these bilateral tensions
Afghan citizens holding PoR cards have, until now, enjoyed certain rights, such as the ability to open bank accounts and register in Pakistan’s citizen database. Now they are considered outsiders and face expulsion. In July 2023, following a visit by UNHCR chief Filippo Grandi, Pakistan extended PoR card validity until June 30, 2025. However, the latest government notification suggests that there is no plan, as of now, to extend their stay any further. The UNHCR has urged the Pakistani Government to recognize that the overwhelming majority of Afghan nationals in Pakistan are law-abiding individuals whose situation needs to be seen through a humanitarian lens.
New Pakistani Government Notification
The government notification from January 2024 has set a March 31 deadline for Afghan citizens awaiting resettlement in third countries. Those who fail to leave by then risk deportation. In a two-page document issued by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office last month, the Pakistani government outlined a three-phase plan to send back Afghan citizens living in the country:
- The first phase involves the “immediate” deportation of all undocumented Afghan citizens. This includes 800,000 Afghans who did not enter the country on valid visas but who, since 2017, have been granted Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC) by the government of Pakistan itself.
- The second phase focuses on 1.3 million Afghan citizens who hold Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, first issued in 2006.
- The final phase will target around 200,000 Afghan citizens who might relocate to third countries.
However, after U.S. President Donald Trump paused U.S. refugee programs last month, around 20,000 Afghans are now in limbo in Pakistan. There are people whose resettlement cases are still being processed, and others who fear for their lives if they return to Afghanistan.
If the plan is carried out as envisaged, only valid visa holders will remain in the country – none of the other refugees who entered Pakistan under duress without proper documentation will be allowed to stay. The notification effectively escalates a previously stop-start approach to expelling Afghan refugees. Originally implemented in late 2023, this deportation plan has already led to more than 800,000 Afghan nationals returning to Afghanistan over the past 18 months, according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR).
Certain groups of Afghan people, including minorities, journalists, and women, could be at risk if they return to Afghanistan under Taliban rule. UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) are concerned about recent developments requiring Afghan nationals in Pakistan to relocate from Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) and Rawalpindi or face deportation. The two agencies are seeking clarity over the modality and time frame of this relocation.
In the process of pressuring the Taliban, Pakistan’s “Establishment” is targeting these refugees, subjecting them to various forms of torture and the threat of deportation, forcing the Taliban to come to Pakistan’s terms. Another hidden agenda of the Pakistani Government appears to be to draw “Khairat” (charitable aid) from the Muslim world or even from Western countries.
