Russia ramped up the nuclear brinkmanship with NATO during its large-scale Zapad 2025 military exercise in concert with Belarus. The exercises showcase both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The exercises started on September 12, 2023, just over a year after President Vladimir Putin had revised Moscow’s nuclear doctrine to claim that any conventional attack upon Russia by a state backed by a nuclear-armed state will be justification for a nuclear response.
The exercises involve the use of nuclear-capable bombers, hypersonic missiles, a large number of troops, and the new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Russia has stated the Oreshik missile, which can carry multiple warheads and has a speed of Mach 10, would take 11 minutes to reach Poland and 17 minutes to hit NATO headquarters in Brussels. Production has already started, and Russia has plans that may see the missile deployed in Belarus later this year.
NATO member states Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania expressed concern and alarm after Russian drones had violated Polish airspace the week prior (September 10, 2023). In response, Poland labelled the violations as a “provocation,” and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte condemned Russia’s actions as “reckless” and disclosed the introduction of the Eastern Sentry initiative to bolster air defenses for members of NATO.
The activities also highlight Belarus’ function as an advanced outpost for Russian tactical nuclear weapons. Analysts caution this is reminiscent of the Cold War when Belarus hosted much of the Soviet Union’s intermediate-range arms.
Putin’s nuclear posture underscored by Zapad 2025 indicates a lowered threshold for nuclear employment and projects Russian deterrence deep into NATO territory. With the war in Ukraine entering its fourth year and peaceful overtures from Trump after the Alaska summit on August 15 in disarray Europe is facing the most serious security situation since the Cold War.
