A canal initiative launched in the Cholistan area of Punjab province, Pakistan, has plunged the entire country into significant turmoil. Nationalist parties, writers, social activists, students, and religious figures, among others, are protesting in the Sindh province against what is being described as an unsustainable economic and ecological endeavor recently unveiled by the Government of Pakistan. Political parties in Sindh, including the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), have labelled the project as yet another instance of the National Government’s repressive policies.
The proposed 176 kilometres long Cholistan canal, now renamed as Mahfooz Shaheed Canal and System is a core element of the Green Pakistan Initiative.
What is the Green Pakistan Initiative (GPI)?
The GPI project, launched in February with a budget of $3.3 billion, aims to irrigate 4.8 million acres of arid land by constructing six canals—two each in Sindh, Balochistan, and Punjab. Five canals will be along the Indus River, and one will be by the Sutlej River.
While the initiative’ goal has been declared as enhancement of agricultural productivity and food security in Pakistan, particularly by converting the Cholistan Desert in southern Punjab into arable land. This initiative is crucial, as agriculture contributes 25 percent to Pakistan’s GDP and employs 37 percent of the workforce.
What is the scale of the Cholistan Canal?
The proposed initiative is the largest canal project under the GPI framework, involving the construction of a canal on the Sutlej River with a capacity of 4,120 cusecs (116,665 litres per second). It will draw water from Punjab’s Rasul-Qadirabad, Qadirabad-Balloki, and Balloki-Sulemanki link canals, with a budget of Rs211.34 billion (about $753 million). The aim is to create a new irrigation area in the Cholistan desert of southern Punjab, covering 1.2 million acres in two phases: 455,000 acres in Phase I and 744,000 acres in Phase II.
The canal project aims to develop agricultural land in the Cholistan desert for a military-managed agribusiness, a detail that has largely been excluded from most mainstream media reports in Pakistan. The military is said to hold a considerable interest in the overall agricultural advancement of Cholistan, overseeing extensive areas of land in the region and playing a key role in determining land distribution for agricultural purposes. Given the Pakistan Army’s notorious reputation for involvement in corrupt practices, there are growing apprehensions that this project may be plagued by corruption. This situation has intensified worries regarding the military’s economic influence and its effects on civilian governance and local rights.
Middle East presence and China links
The Green Pakistan Initiative has attracted significant foreign investment, particularly for projects like the Cholistan Canal. The initiative targets capital from friendly Middle Eastern countries reliant on food imports, with Pakistan seeking billions of dollars in investments from Gulf countries to kickstart the project. So far, around 140,000 acres have drawn foreign investors, while local investors are involved with 460,000 acres.
Pakistan has even signed memoranda of understanding with various foreign companies, including Chinese firms like China Machinery Engineering Corporation and Famsun, which provide support in engineering, construction, and agricultural equipment. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), co-chaired by military officials, manages the coordination of these foreign investments and agreements.
Why is Sindh protesting against the Cholistan Canal?
The Cholistan Canal project is widely viewed in Sindh as unfair and a serious threat to the province’s water rights, agriculture, and socio-economic stability. Widespread protests have emerged across the nation, particularly in Sindh against the project, and the reasons are multitude.
The 1960 Indus Water Treaty grants India control over the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan manages the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. India’s extensive water extraction and dam projects on the Sutlej, worsened by climate change, have significantly decreased water flow into Pakistan. Consequently, the Pakistani government’s assertion that a proposed canal, reliant on surplus monsoon floodwaters from the Sutlej, will not impact Sindh’s water allocation is considered unrealistic. Critics warn that the canal will likely divert water from the Indus Basin via the Sukkur barrage, threatening Sindh’s water security.
The Sukkur Barrage is crucial to Sindh’s irrigation system, supplying water to 8.2 million acres of farmland. It also provides water to Balochistan via the North Western Canal (NWC). Sindh argues that the barrage’s current allocations are already considerable, and any additional diversions could severely compromise its irrigation infrastructure.
Sindh’s grievances also stem from historical factors, especially the belief that its resources, particularly water, mainly serve Punjab, the most populous and agriculturally rich province. Nabi Bux Sathio, Vice President of the Sindh Chamber of Agriculture, stated that the Cholistan canal project would “devastate 12 million acres of agricultural land in Sindh to irrigate merely 1.2 million acres of desert in Punjab.”
The project faces legal challenges as well . Pakistan’s Water Apportionment Accord of 1991 established specific water allocations for each province to address disputes over inter-provincial water resources, leading to the creation of the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) in 1992 for conflict resolution. Despite Sindh’s objections, the IRSA approved the Cholistan Canal project. The Sindh High Court has expressed concerns about the IRSA’s composition, highlighting that the federal member was not appointed from Sindh, which raises questions about their authority to issue the required water availability certificate for the Cholistan and Thal phase II canals.
Sindh, an agricultural region, stands to face significant economic and environmental consequences of the canal project. Coastal communities in Keti Bandar, Kharo Chan, Shah Bandar, and Jati are experiencing increased saltwater intrusion, rendering over 1.3 million acres of fertile land unproductive. As the sea encroaches on freshwater supplies, many farmers are forced to abandon their ancestral lands, leading to climate-driven migration and heightened socio-economic instability. Urban areas like Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, already grappling with water scarcity, are seeing a rise in pollution as drinking water quality declines.
The protests and sit-ins represent not just local issues but a broader crisis of confidence in federal water policies that have historically favoured certain regions.
Additionally, it is important to recognize the potential political implications of this situation. Among the demonstrators is the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which governs Sindh and is also part of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s ruling coalition at the federal level, raising concerns about the stability of this alliance.
Does the Cholistan Canal stand to impact India, and how?
The Cholistan Canal project, while primarily a Pakistani initiative, has considerable implications for India, mainly as it targets water from the Sutlej River, a transboundary river. Despite General Ayyub’s cession of the Sutlej to India, harnessing its flood flows might disrupt the existing hydrological balance during flood seasons, affecting water flow to India. The project’s demands on the Indus basin’s water usage could necessitate a revaluation of the Indus Water Treaty, potentially leading to renewed negotiations. Given its proximity to the India-Pakistan border, the canal’s establishment may heighten diplomatic tensions as India voices concerns over water impacts and treaty violations.
Additionally, as both nations are faced with water scarcity and climate change, the project will likely play a crucial role in sustainable water management discussions. Transforming the arid Cholistan Desert into arable land may also shift agricultural trends and cross-border trade dynamics, influencing market competition between the two countries. Moreover, large-scale irrigation may cause significant ecological shifts with possible long-term cross-border impacts.
Conclusion
Sindh is grappling with severe water scarcity due to years of mismanagement. As protests and discussions intensify, a balanced, inclusive, and data-driven approach to water management becomes essential. However, the historical trend of the Pakistani establishment, both openly and secretly, supporting the politically and economically powerful Punjab to the detriment of other provinces, combined with the state’s authoritarian tactics, has yet again led to the National government inadequately responding to the valid concerns of the people of Sindh. Although primarily a domestic initiative, the Cholistan Canal project could indirectly affect India as well, warranting careful monitoring of its regional implications and potential impact on India-Pakistan relations concerning shared water resources.
