The demographic landscape of Nepal is currently experiencing a notable transformation, characterized by a significant increase in the Muslim population. According to data from the 1950s and the most recent 2021 Census, the percentage of Muslims within Nepal’s total population has risen from 2.54% to 5.09%. This increase effectively represents a doubling of the Muslim demographic over this period. Research suggests that by the year 2050, the Muslim population in Nepal could rise to around 3.34 million, representing roughly 7% of the overall population.
This remarkable shift in demographics is not merely a statistical observation; it carries substantial implications that must be examined within the broader context of its current impacts and potential future ramifications for the social, cultural, and political environment of the country.
Presently, Islam is the religion experiencing the most rapid growth in Nepal. This trend may enable Islam to surpass Buddhism, which, according to the 2021 Census, is currently the second-largest religion in the country.
An analysis of the district-specific data concerning the Muslim population in Nepal uncovers another trend. The ten districts with the largest Muslim populations are all located near the Indo-Nepal border, within a distance of roughly 50 to 100 kilometers. These are- Rautahat, Kapilvastu, Banke, Bara,Sunsari, Parsa, Mahottari, Rupandehi, Dhanusha and Sarlahi. Tarai or Madhes region of Nepal, running alongside the border, is home to 95 percent of the country’s Muslims.
Rise in number of mosques and madrasas in Nepal
The increasing Muslim population in Nepal is closely associated with strategic settlement trends characterized by a significant rise in the number of Islamic communities and educational institutions, such as mosques and madrasas.
The United States (US) Department of State’s 2023 Report on International Religious Freedom states, “According to the Center for Education and Human Resource Development, 1,063 madrassahs were registered with district education offices, compared with 1,014 in 2022. Some Muslim leaders stated approximately 2,000 full-time madrassahs continued to be unregistered”.
Although precise statistics are difficult to determine due to differing reports, it is widely acknowledged that Nepal has experienced a significant increase in the number of mosques and madrasas, particularly over the past twenty years. The number of mosques has increased in Kathmandu, Birgunj, Bhairahawa, Pokhara, Biratnagar, Kakarvitta, Rautahat, Banke, Kapilvastu, Parsa, Mahottari, Bara, and Sunsari in recent times.
Rohingyas as contributors to Nepal’s demographic shift
This is demonstrated by the demographic shifts occurring in Mahottari, which is the seventh district in Nepal with the largest Muslim population. In the Mathihani Municipality of Mahottari, Muslims make up 20% of the overall population. This percentage has been consistently increasing due to the influx of Rohingya refugees, along with Muslims from Bangladesh and India. Reports suggest that these immigrants mainly enter Nepal via the Kakarbhitta border area in the eastern part of the country, which borders the northern regions of West Bengal, India. After arriving in Nepal, these Bangladeshi Muslims are reportedly settling in the Madhes region, where they often secure jobs as laborers.
Key facilitators behind promoting Muslim settlements within Nepal
In past decades, Muslim community settlements in Nepal have been systematically established at Nepal’s strategic locations, most notably along the Indo-Nepal border, through a complex nexus involving Government, Islamic organizations, associated non-profits, foreign governmental aid, and international non-governmental organizations (INGOs). Many of these facilitators have a background steeped in controversies and contentious linkages with extremist Islamic bodies.
Muslims dominate local-level elections in Nepali villages close to the Indo-Nepal border. Koilabas village in Dang district is a case in point. Despite the village having an equal population of Hindus and Muslims, the head is a Muslim; so much so that no other community’s candidate has even contested the elections in a long time. Muslim village heads and Muslim lawmakers can be seen even in the interior parts of Nepal. The level of government patronage can be assessed from the fact that the Nepal government gives funds and grants to the Madarsa in this village. Muslims appropriate a major chunk of government-scheme-related benefits as well. In 2022, of the total 839 of such beneficiaries in the Garhwa region of Dang, 602 were Muslims, surpassing even tribals. The Nepal Government’s Muslim appeasement policies have thus facilitated the settling of their community in prime locations close to the Indo-Nepal border.
It is alleged that ISN is building mosques, Islamic centers, and madrasas near the Indo-Nepal border, possibly with support from IHH, a Turkish NGO linked to Al-Qaeda and Hamas. In 2018, Indian intelligence agencies investigated ISN for allegedly sheltering two Indian Mujahideen operatives, Junaid and Abdul Subhan Qureshi, also known as Tauqeer.
Many of the other local entities known to operate or construct mosques/madrasas in Nepal’s border areas interestingly have either direct or indirect affiliations with the ISN. These include the Al Hira Educational Society Nepal & Nepal Development Society. These institutions and organizations get regular direct funds from Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Pakistan has long been accused of being a significant source of funding among foreign sponsors of several mosques, including the Narayanghat mosque, Rauhat mosque, Nepalganj Jama Masjid, Kuleswore Masjid, Janakpur madrassa, and Sunsari madrassa.
Dawat-e-Islami (DeI), a Sunni Islamic organization based in Pakistan, has also been involved in mosque construction projects in the region. Although DeI presents itself as an apolitical entity, it actively promotes a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam.
Nepalgunj city of Nepal stands very close to the Indo-Nepal border.https://www.dawateislami.net/activities/en/masjid-construction-in-nepal HeSRA is affiliated with Islami Sangh Nepal. https://www.instagram.com/p/DFSGbd7spBH/?img_index=2
Helping Hand for Relief and Development (HHRD), an affiliate of the Islamic Circle of North America (ICNA), is a non-governmental organization operating in the United States. It is claimed that HHRD aligns with the extremist ideological principles of Jamat-e-Islami from Pakistan and is reportedly connected to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). According to reports from Nepali security agencies, HHRD has been establishing various facilities in Nepal and is alleged to have donated a substantial sum of Nepali Rupees to a Madrasa in Biratnagar, Morang district, Koshi Province, ostensibly for land acquisition purposes.
How Islamization is impacting Nepal
Like any other society undergoing an unnaturally fast-paced transition as critical as this, Nepal is also facing the impact.
In 2017, Khorshid Alam, the leader of Nepal’s Islamic Society, stated that approximately 100,000 Nepalese individuals had converted to Islam in the country over the past 15 years. As early as 2012, Turkey’s IHH had initiated a structured program to assist new Muslim converts in Nepal, suggesting a strategic effort to encourage conversions.
IHH memo from 2012 vowing to provide support to Nepali people who converted to Islam and face pressure due to their decision to become Muslim. https://ihh.org.tr/en/news/a-special-kind-of-relief-to-nepali-muslims-773
Muslims, particularly among new immigrant populations, have been reported to exhibit a range of concerning behaviors that have raised various issues in communities. There is documented involvement in minor criminal activities, including theft, drug-related offenses, human trafficking, and violence against women, particularly those from different ethnic backgrounds. Additionally, there are allegations regarding attempts to coerce members of the Hindu community into converting to Islam. Consequently, the perception of safety has diminished, and women often express discomfort in areas predominantly inhabited by Muslim populations, such as Biratnagar, which is located along the Indo-Nepal border. This situation is believed to be exacerbated by the radicalization of poorer individuals within these communities, influenced by certain clerical teachings.
Communal tensions are rising, particularly as the growing Muslim community is seen as attempting to assert its dominance over other groups. In June 2024, conflicts were reported in the Rautahat district, where Muslims named a village Islam Nagar and erected a sign with that name. A similar incident occurred earlier when Kadam Chowk (Brahma Sthan) was renamed Madrasa Chowk by some members of the Muslim community. The chairman of the ward is a Muslim named Sheikh Wahab.
The phenomenon of Land jihad is emerging in parts of Nepal with significant Muslim populations, such as the Shivpur region of Janakpur. Reports indicate that around 16 years ago, a small Muslim community, initially comprising only 2 to 4 families, began conducting Namaz on a vacant plot owned by a local government school. Over time, their numbers have grown, and they have constructed a mosque. However, the community continues to hold prayers on the government property, which they now refer to as their place of worship.
The growing Muslim demographic in Nepal is likely to have substantial political consequences. In the 1990s, Muslims made up nearly 4% of the population, prompting the Nepali Congress and the United Communist Party of Nepal to nominate Muslim candidates in the 1991 elections as part of their mobilization efforts. These parties also encouraged the establishment of socio-political pressure groups among Muslims, resulting in the formation of ‘Muslim wings’ in nearly all major political parties. This demonstrates how increasing the Muslim population boosts their voter representation and political influence.
Implications for India
As previously mentioned, most Muslim-majority districts in Nepal are located near the Indo-Nepal border, a trend mirrored on the Indian side. In the seven Uttar Pradesh districts—Pilibhit, Siddharthnagar, Sravasti, Kheri, Balrampur, Maharajganj, and Bahraich—adjacent to Nepal, the Muslim population has risen by 32% over the past decade. Similarly, in Assam, the border districts of Dhubri, Karimganj, South Salmara, and Cachar, all within 10 kilometers of the Bangladesh border, have a Muslim population of 31.45%.
There is a troubling rise in the number of mosques and madrasas along the Indo-Nepal border, increasing from 1,349 in 2018 to 1,688 today. Many madrasas operate without official registration, and a 2024 investigation by the Special Investigation Team (SIT) revealed over 13,000 illegal madrasas in Uttar Pradesh, many near the Nepal border.
Media reports indicate that these institutions promote radical Islamist ideologies, with students often indoctrinated with conservative, jihadist views that facilitate recruitment for terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD). The mosques in this area primarily endorse Wahhabism, leading to conversions among Hindus, especially migrant laborers.
Terrorist groups supported by the ISI exploit India’s porous borders. In 2021, the Pakistan-based extremist group Dawat-e-Islamia (DeL) reportedly built a two-story guest house near the Indo-Nepal border for individuals from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and elsewhere, with a budget of Rs. 1.25 crore. Groups such as ISIS K, AQIS, LeT, and JeM may utilize these facilities for their operations.
Muslim Musafirkhanas strewn all across the border stretches are another hub for political discourses and planning community agendas. Being a place of transit, this Musafirkhana accommodates Muslims and even non-Muslims. Muslim political leaders, ulema (religious leaders/Islamic scholars), and Muslim traders from eastern UP and other parts of Nepal stayed in this Musafirkhana. Security officials at the India-Nepal border have reported that these centers also incite anti-India sentiments and provide refuge to criminals operating in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
The Muslim population spurt in the area is bearing implications for political representation at the local level as well. UP’s Balrampur is reportedly on the verge of becoming a Muslim-majority district. Balrampur Municipal Corporation elections have consistently yielded a Muslim candidate as the winner for two straight decades.
The border region has become a hub for organized crime, including hawala, counterfeiting, and human trafficking. In January, law enforcement dismantled a counterfeit Indian currency operation worth Rs. 35,400 at the Fazr-ul-Nabi madrasa near the Malhipur mosque along the Indo-Nepal border. Since the 2016 demonetization, reports indicate that Fake Indian currency notes (FICNs) are being smuggled into India from Pakistan via Nepal. In August 2019, Delhi Police seized Rs. 5.50 lakh in high-quality FICNs and arrested Alam Ansari, a Nepalese national identified as a key supplier. Ansari stated to interrogators that the consignment he received in Nepal was reportedly sent by Dawood Ibrahim from Pakistan, with Raxaul in Bihar (located along the Indo-Nepal border) being used for the smuggling of the FICNs.
The ability to leverage the India- Nepal border for nefarious agendas has notably increased due to the rise of a pro-China government in Nepal. The Sino-Pak partnership, coupled with the rise in Chinese study centers near the Indo-Nepal border, heightens security concerns
The Nepalese government expelled 147 Chinese citizens from the country in 2024, including many individuals associated with organized crime syndicates, as it did in 2023 with 209 Chinese nationals for similar reasons. In addition to overstaying, foreign nationals are frequently involved in crimes such as document forgery, drug offenses, and indecent behavior, which present challenges to law enforcement and immigration control. Overstaying is not the only accusation Chinese citizens have faced, with recent instances of financial fraud, drug-related offenses, and organized crime being reported. Deportees in 2024 included Americans, Bangladeshi citizens, Pakistani citizens, and Iranian citizens. There were several types of violations documented, including overstaying, drug crimes, forgery, and sexual abuse.
In conclusion
India and Nepal are connected by an extensive open international border that stretches 1,850 kilometers, crossing through five Indian states: Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. The demographic changes in Nepal, particularly the increasing Muslim population and the rise of Islamic community settlements, have also been reflected on the Indian side of the border. As Nepal faces the current and potential consequences of this rapid Islamization, which affects its sociocultural, economic, and political dynamics, India must enhance and strengthen its security measures along the Indo-Nepal border to address the potential impacts on its own national peace and security.
