China is seeking to direct engagement with Baloch groups, bypassing Pakistan’s military to safeguard the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) investments in Balochistan and to increase the progress on the stalled CPEC. This action was formally conveyed to Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif during his recent visit to Beijing. The unprecedented move by China as escalating attacks on Chinese citizens and on infrastructure projects. The Chinese engagement with Balochistan signals a significant change in regional security. As India opposes the CPEC project, this stance by China provides the strategic opportunity and challenges for reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
What is CPEC?
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a part of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) launched in 2013. It is a bilateral project between Pakistan and China, which is a 3,000 km long route of infrastructure project connecting China’s northwest Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Gwadar port in the western province of Balochistan region of Pakistan. It is promoting connectivity across Pakistan with a network of highways, railways and pipelines accompanied by energy, industrial and other infrastructure development projects. It will pave the way for China to access the Middle East and Africa from Gwadar port, enabling China to access the Indian Ocean and in return China will support development projects in Pakistan to support its energy crisis and stabilize its faltering economy.
Balochistan’s Role and Tensions
Balochistan has been known for unrest since Pakistan’s annexation of the princely state of Kalat in 1948. Separatist groups like Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) continuously accused China and Pakistan for exploiting their resources. Even Balochistan is known for rich mineral resources and still there are marginalized locals, as it receives only 9% of Gwadar revenue compared to China profits.
China direct talks with Baloch Groups to secure CPEC
China declared its intention to engage in talks with the Baloch people, who are considered to be the “true protectors” of Balochistan. At least 20 Chinese nationals have been killed in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa since 2021, and China’s justification is based on repeated security lapses. This strategy has been strengthened by Beijing’s increasing expertise in conflict-zone diplomacy, including its Middle East mediation. Although the identities of the specific groups involved are unknown, BLA factions are probably involved because of their prominence in anti-CPEC attacks.
Reports indicate that China is tackling Baloch demands for autonomy and stopping military operations by offering economic incentives such as development projects and a greater share of revenue from resource extraction, in addition to possible back-channel political recognition. Negotiations have grown more difficult due to local backlash against China’s plans to erect police posts along CPEC routes.
China’s key projects include Gwadar port, Reko Diq mining initiative and coal based power plants. However, Balochistan is Pakistan’s largest province and serves a strategic importance for CPEC, for activities to take place along its coastline, and with mineral resources that are believed to be valued at around $6 trillion.
Attacks on Chinese Interests in the Province
Baloch separatists view CPEC as a project that takes advantage of them, which has led them to attack Chinese personnel and infrastructure:
2018, Dalbandin: A suicide bombing by the BLA that targeted a bus full of Chinese engineers, three of whom were injured.
2019, Gwadar Pearl-Continental Hotel Attack: BLA militants attacked a group of Chinese workers, killed five, and demanded that they abandon CPEC projects.
2021, Gwadar Bombing: A bombing claimed by BLA killed two children; one of the injured was a Chinese national on location near a CPEC site.
2022, Karachi University Attack: A female BLA suicide bomber killed three Chinese teachers, showing that BLA had advanced their tactics.
2024, Gwadar Port Attack: The BLA’s Majeed Brigade infiltrated the port complex in Gwadar, killed two security personnel, and retreated when they were engaged by Pakistan’s military; no Chinese workers were reported injured or killed.
2024, Besham Suicide bombing: Five Chinese engineers were killed in a BLA-claimed attack, and worked for a Chinese construction company working under the Dasu Hydropower Project, which caused China to suspend work on three separate CPEC projects.
Since 2016, over 20 attacks have been directed at Chinese interests, 15 killed Chinese nationals, dozens injured, and the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies put economic losses at 500 million dollars from delays to Chinese projects (2024). The BLA has openly stated the goal to disrupt CPEC for destroying the local economy and prioritizing foreign interests.
This course of action, in response to relentless attacks on Chinese personnel and infrastructure, highlights the geopolitical significance of CPEC as a critical component of the Belt and Road Initiative. For India, it is a diplomatic win in an Indian-Pakistani negative-sum game vis-a-vis the areas of Pakistan that are Baloch, one that highlights Pakistan’s loss of control in Balochistan, to ever-greater degrees of unrest, and reveals Pakistan’s underlying vulnerabilities as an ally to China. India has opposed CPEC since its inception because of CPEC’s pathway through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), and Beijing’s direct involvement potentially exposes Islamabad’s decreased ability to control the security situation in Pakistan, which might disrupt the China-Pakistan relationship even further.
