The recent inauguration of cargo flights between China’s Xinjiang and Islamabad represents the culmination of Beijing’s methodical approach to establishing what one Chinese official privately termed “strategic redundancy” in its Pakistan relations. Behind diplomatic platitudes lies a calculated strategy designed not only to secure China’s access to the Arabian Sea but, critically, to maintain regional tensions that serve Beijing’s broader economic and strategic interests.
China has committed approximately $77 billion to Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with an additional $15 billion invested since January 2025. These investments have yielded significant infrastructure developments including the ML-1 railway upgrade, the “Western Alignment” highway network, and the Karakoram All-Weather Transit System. Winter transport capacity has increased by 380% compared to 2023 levels, enabling year-round operations in previously inaccessible terrain.
While officially framed as economic development initiatives, these investments reveal China’s underlying strategy is maintaining Pakistan as a pressure point against India. Beijing recognises that continuous tensions between India and Pakistan serve to divert New Delhi’s focus and resources away from economic development and manufacturing growth. As India pursues its “Atmanirbhar Bharat” (self-reliant India) initiative with increasing success, China faces the prospect of a formidable economic competitor capable of challenging its manufacturing dominance.
The “Comprehensive Defense Industrial Cooperation Framework” signed in February 2025 has reduced delivery times for critical defence components from 45 days to less than 72 hours, significantly enhancing Pakistan’s military readiness. This accelerated military support, coupled with China’s deployment of an estimated 2,400 private security contractors at Pakistani ports, demonstrates Beijing’s commitment to maintaining Pakistan as a counterweight to India.
Behind Every Border skirmish lies Beijing’s Economic Calculus
China’s strategic imperative is clear: a distracted India, continuously concerned with security along its western border, will struggle to fully realise its manufacturing potential. This serves China’s economic interests by preserving markets for Chinese goods and maintaining demand for Chinese labour. Beijing recognises that India’s vast population, growing technological expertise, and democratic institutions make it potentially the only nation capable of matching China’s manufacturing scale while offering an alternative development model.
India has responded with alarm to these developments. Its March 2025 announcement of a $12 billion border infrastructure program explicitly references “containment of hostile supply corridors.” Similarly, the U.S. State Department has expressed “grave concerns regarding un-monitored technology proliferation pathways.”
What remains unstated in official communications is perhaps most revealing: China’s fear of India’s potential. As India continues to develop its manufacturing capabilities, attract global investment, and strengthen international partnerships, Beijing sees its economic model and regional dominance increasingly challenged. By ensuring that Pakistan remains militarily capable and strategically aligned with Chinese interests, Beijing creates a persistent security concern that diverts India’s attention and resources.
The traditional bilateral friction between India and Pakistan is thus increasingly shaped by China’s strategic calculations. Any meaningful resolution of regional tensions must acknowledge China’s role as the primary architect of this strategic triangle, using Pakistan as a proxy to contain India’s rise while publicly maintaining the facade of a neutral economic partner.
As these strategic corridors continue to evolve throughout 2025, they will increasingly serve China’s dual objectives: securing its access to vital maritime routes while ensuring that India remains sufficiently distracted by security concerns to prevent it from fully realising its potential as a self-reliant manufacturing powerhouse capable of challenging China’s economic dominance in Asia and beyond.
