During his recent four-day visit to Beijing, Bangladesh’s interim head Muhammad Yunus told Chinese leaders: “The seven states of India, the eastern part of India, are called the Seven Sisters. They are a landlocked region of India. They have no way to reach out to the ocean. We (Bangladesh) are the only guardian of the ocean for this region.” This provocative statement cannot be taken lightly. In geopolitics, such declarations directly challenge established relationships and demand firm responses. Yunus’s remark deliberately mischaracterizes India’s Northeast as strategically vulnerable—a position India categorically rejects.
India’s Decisive Action on Trans-shipment Policy
The trans-shipment agreement that India generously extended to Bangladesh since 2020 was not an entitlement but a privilege one that Bangladesh has now lost. On April 8, 2025, the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) withdrew this facility, sending a clear message that India will not tolerate Bangladesh’s increasingly hostile posture. While logistical issues were cited officially, Bangladesh’s recent actions—including closing land ports and suspending Indian yarn imports—forced India’s hand.
This termination will significantly impact Bangladesh’s export and import logistics, causing delays, increased costs, and disrupted trade with Nepal and Bhutan. Bangladesh must understand that actions have consequences. Their economic stability depends largely on maintaining good relations with India, not undermining them through diplomatic provocations.
India’s Conditional Goodwill Continues— For Now!
Despite Bangladesh’s provocations, India has chosen to maintain transit trade rights for Bangladeshi exports to Nepal and Bhutan. This decision demonstrates India’s strategic restraint and commitment to regional stability. However, Bangladesh should not mistake this as weakness. India’s patience has limits, and further provocations will invite stronger responses. India remains committed to its relationships with Nepal and Bhutan irrespective of Bangladesh’s behaviour.
Bangladesh’s economy stands precariously dependent on its Ready-made Garment (RMG) industry, which accounts for 80% of its export earnings. With 2024 already bringing political unrest, energy crises, and declining export orders, Bangladesh cannot afford to antagonise its largest neighbour. The $31.45 billion USD earned from RMG exports in 2020-21 will rapidly diminish if Bangladesh continues its current trajectory of diplomatic hostility.
India’s Unwavering Regional Leadership
Bangladesh must acknowledge Northeast India’s critical importance as both a hinterland and transit territory for its own economic survival. India’s decision to maintain transit trade rights despite terminating trans-shipment facilities demonstrates exceptional restraint. However, Bangladesh should not test India’s resolve further. India remains committed to a stable Bay of Bengal region, as evidenced at the recent BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, but will not tolerate challenges to its territorial integrity or strategic interests.
Bangladesh faces a clear choice: respect India’s concerns and rebuild cooperative relations, or face increasingly severe consequences for its provocative stance. India has shown restraint this time and next time, the response may be far less accommodating.
